Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Boston Bruins (vs. FLA)
The Bruins and Panthers are both off to 2-0 starts to the season, but the Panthers are -132 road favourites. It’s early, and the sample size is awfully small, but the Bruins are off to a great start (62.9 xGF%) despite all of the injuries. The model actually sees the Bruins as slight home favourites, so there’s plenty of value in them at +119.
1.0 unit bet: BOS +119
Colorado Avalanche (@ MIN)
Through two games, the Avalanche are 1-1-0 with a win over the Blackhawks and loss in Calgary. Tonight they’ll take on a Minnesota team has stumbled out of the gates, giving up seven goals in each game so far. The last team you want to play when you’re struggling to keep the puck out of your net, is the Colorado Avalanche. Despite Marc-Andre Fleury’s struggles (.776 SV%), the Avalanche are only -114 favourites.
1 unit bet: COL -114
Winnipeg Jets (@ DAL)
The Jets and Stars have yet to lose and will meet tonight in Dallas. The Stars are pretty sizeable -144 favourites, but the model sees this game almost as a pick ’em (-106). The Jets have a powerful offence and a great goaltender, and each of the Jets and Stars’ four matchups last season went to overtime. This should be a tight contest, so there’s value on Winnipeg +130.
0.5 unit bet: WPG +130
Proceed with Caution
Arizona Coyotes (@ TOR) +393
The Coyotes are massive +393 underdogs tonight, the type of line you don’t often see in the NHL. The model sees some value in them at that price, but it’s not enough to want to put money down on them without Nick Schmaltz. Although, Arizona was 2-0 against the Maple Leafs a season ago.
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I’m a journalist who specializes in investigative reporting and writing. I have written for the New York Times and other publications.